...what parent do I base it on?
To expand, I have been writing some reasonably simple themes based largely on Bas Brand's Bootstrap theme project (colours, headers and logos for corporate clients mostly - nothing exciting). However, I have been disturbed somewhat by the announcements concerning Bootstrap 4 and big changes in Moodle 3.2.
It's probably a bit of a silly question at the moment, but what's the least risky starting point for theme development if writing a theme for 3.1 right now?