Hi Dan
Thanks to your support I made great progress.
I wanted two things: a) the current (manaul) Moodle users to be able to log in to the same account by authenticating through the federation. b) In the case of disturbances in the federation the ability for them to switch back to the manual account. Now it is pretty clear to me, once the email addresses on either side are tied together, there is no confusion.
I was overthinking in a), mainly because of the value in mdl_user:username, which Moodle expects to be unique. The simple answer to that is: SAML2 doesn't look at mdl_user:username - to be more accurate, can make it not to look at mdl_user:username!
The surprising answer to 2) is, one can make SMAL2 not to care the mdl_user:auth too! That is what I did and now the the users can alternatively login from the federation or the local account - or from both at the same time! That'll take care of a lot of user support requests.
The final thing I need is,
3) new users who join through the federation (first) to get the jdoe from their e-mail addresses like jdoe@sub.example.com as mdl_user:username. As it is now, mdl_user:username also gets the value jdoe@sub.example.com - the same as mdl_user:email.
I know, the federation should tell me what I should take. But I'm not making progress and forced to "reverse engineer".
I looked at two things:
A. IdP Meta data
https://fr.example.com/signedmetadata/metadata.xml has things like,
[...]
md:ContactPerson contactType="support"
md:GivenName xxxxxxx
md:SurName xxxx
md:EmailAddress mailto:username@sub.example.com
[...]
There are many more like that, but always md:GivenName, md:SurName, md:EmailAddress - never the username alone. Should it be there, somewhere?
B. Information to be provided to Service

Under UserID there is exactly the jdoe (without
domain) I am looking for. I've put:
- UserID in Data mapping (Username)
- On creation in Update local (Username)
- Never in Update external (Username) and
- Locked in Lock value (username)
But new users get email as mdl_user:username.
Do you have any suggestions what I need to do?