Melissa, Unfortunately VPS-1 would NOT be sufficient, I will tell you reasons for that.
your current shared hosting, may be sufficient for your current needs and could as well be for your oncoming needs for the reason, that on shared hosting, the hardware is typically very powerful because they host some 500+ accounts on each server and each account hosting 3+ domains , so you are expecting some 1500 sites running on a shared hosting server. because shared hosting is the basic level of most hosting types, so people tend to get shared hosting for testing purposes only, some for keeping domains only etc. A typical shared host server is made up of Multiple Core CPU (8+) and some 24GB of RAM with RAID discs, and not every customer actually USES their shared hosting accounts other than testing, or may be few light websites running, so eventually those who are actually using it gets a good share of that strong hardware deployed for shared server.
Now, coming to your VPS, comparing to a powerplan (which I am sure must be hosting way less than 500 accounts per server), the RAM of 512 is very very low, you should be looking at 3+ GB of RAM on a private server, as I have seen someone on shared hosting before, thought of getting a VPS with 768MB of RAM (which is 256 MB more than your desired one), and there moodle site fell apart after 30 concurrent users, and you are talking about 100.
how much is your Budget to go?