Moodle's market value?

Moodle's market value?

by MoodleKittyCat . -
Number of replies: 15

Instructure got sold for $2B. How is that possible when Moodle is far superior, famous, huge user base, flexible, cheap? And, do you think that Instructure was sold way over the top? Does it even deserve this much? If Moodle was a publicly-traded company, do you think it will sell higher than $2B? I think so. Your thoughts pls?

Thanks from the Kitty.

Average of ratings: -
In reply to MoodleKittyCat .

Re: Moodle's market value?

by Marcus Green -
Picture of Core developers Picture of Particularly helpful Moodlers Picture of Plugin developers Picture of Testers
Things are worth what people think they are worth. Rupert Murdoch bought MySpace for $US500m and sold it for $US35M. A few years ago Blackboard thought it was worth $US34B. In my opinion Instructure/Canvas is a big money burning exercise, but you would be better taking my advice on Moodle/development than financial issues.
In reply to MoodleKittyCat .

Re: Moodle's market value?

by Matt Bury -
Picture of Plugin developers

So a private equity firm spent (borrowed? invested?) $2Bn on an asset (Canvas). They're not educators, a charity, or in this for "making the world a better place." They want a return on their $2Bn, one way or another. So the question is, how are they going to get that? University of Toronto, among other institutions, are switching from Blackboard to Canvas. Perhaps Canvas is similar/familiar enough to Blackboard that faculty & admins are more comfortable with switching to it? Aggressive growth would be one way to make some money back.

It seems that Moodle is the only major FOSS LMS/VLE around. The EU has its FOSS-first directive & other governments, institutions, & organisations are gradually going the FOSS route - I think it's the most sustainable route. That Moodle exists & is doing so well also means it'll have a significant (positive) effect on the other 3 non-free & open LMS/VLEs, i.e. they have to compete with Moodle's openness & community foundation. 

Also, in terms of Ed. research, using Moodle makes studies easier to reproduce & build on. Having a substantial body of accessible, high-quality research on how to best do online & distance learning via Moodle has got to be attractive, especially when evidence-informed pedagogy is gaining traction around the world, e.g. https://researched.org.uk/ 

I think the future's looking bright for Moodle smile

Average of ratings: Very cool (2)
In reply to MoodleKittyCat .

Re: Moodle's market value?

by Rick Jerz -
Picture of Particularly helpful Moodlers Picture of Testers

KittyCat, where is it that you saw that Instructor got sold for $2B.  All that I can find is that they are thinking about selling.

In reply to MoodleKittyCat .

Re: Moodle's market value?

by Rick Jerz -
Picture of Particularly helpful Moodlers Picture of Testers
Yep, interesting. I now see some other reports, too. Let's see how this shakes out. Instructure needs some serious program improvements, and maybe the new investment firm will provide some cash for improvements. At least Instructure/Canvas was not purchased by Blackboard, which we know what would then happen.

From what I can read, it doesn't seem like a done deal, yet. Or do you read the information differently?

At this point, I really don't have any other thoughts for you and your questions.

There was a point in time that I was thinking about investing in Instructure.  Not because I liked the company, but rather that I saw some U.S. schools buying Canvas.  I am not a financial investment firm, so my best advice is don't follow me with your investments.  🤯
In reply to Rick Jerz

Re: Moodle's market value?

by Visvanath Ratnaweera -
Picture of Particularly helpful Moodlers Picture of Translators
So Instructure is about investment - good or bad - but in money. Moodle invests in education - I hope!
Average of ratings: Coolest thing ever! (2)
In reply to Visvanath Ratnaweera

Re: Moodle's market value?

by Rick Jerz -
Picture of Particularly helpful Moodlers Picture of Testers
I got to thinking a little more about this, and I am starting to wonder if this could be part of a financial scam. Consider the following:

1) There is an LMS market with companies making money. This is illustrated by Blackboard.
2) Blackboard has had known problems. Could another company come in and take over market share?
3) Yes, but there is already a great, and free product called Moodle.
4) In the U.S., there is this group of major universities that joined Unizen, an organization that promotes sharing and open-course development. Many of the major big-10 universities have been joining Unizen.

Now here's where it get's tricky.
6) Unizen picked Canvas, not Moodle, as it's LMS. Members of Unizen are pretty much obligated to buy Canvas. This has always puzzled me. Why wouldn't Unizen pick Moodle, an open-source LMS where universities could really help make improvements, and share for free? Why pick a specific LMS that you must pay for, and where it is difficult to make improvements?
7) At many schools, it appears that the decision to go with Canvas is a "top-down" administrative/management decision. These higher-level administrators tell the workers, "You must now use Canvas."
8) Canvas is publicly traded. People can invest in Canvas (Instructure).
8) Let's say that these higher-level decision-makers real goal is to become wealthy. Let's say that they see that there is the potential to make money with Instructure stock.  So, they buy stock in Instructure, and then tell their schools that they must use Instructure/Canvas.  And they promote Canvas, via Unizen, to other schools.

So what I am saying is that maybe some folks picked Canvas not because it was the best LMS, but there was an opportunity to make money.  And these people were in a position to influence the value of Instructure by forcing their schools to buy Canvas?  Isn't this somewhat like insider trading?

Who knows, but this is just a theory that I was thinking about last night.

In my own case, I don't own Instructure stock.  But around 4 years ago, I did think about buying some.  I was thinking that if all of these major universities switch to Canvas, that the Canvas stock value should go up because of the large investment by these universities.

Well, who knows.  Maybe this is the way all businesses operate.  But I do end up thinking that perhaps many school administrators picked Canvas not because it was better, but because they could purchase Canvas stock and influence its stock price.  I had also been thinking somewhat the same way about Blackboard.  However, for my own LMS needs, I was going to continue to use Moodle.  I saw no advantage in using these other inferior products.  I wasn't in a position to decide/influence the value of these other companies.

Maybe none of the above makes any sense, and I am just rambling.
In reply to Rick Jerz

Re: Moodle's market value?

by Matt Bury -
Picture of Plugin developers

Hi Rick,

I don't share your view on this matter. I go along with the idea of, "Don't attribute malice/skull-duggery to what can be explained through ignorance/incompetence." Or better still, that their decision-making processes & considerations don't prioritise in the same ways that yours & mine do.

It may be that transitioning from HE institutions' old LMS' to Canvas is technically less problematic in terms of the courseware they already have & faculty & admins' knowledge & skills in using their old LMS. Canvas may be been designed & developed quite deliberately with this in mind in order to be more attractive to HE institutions. It could be that in their eyes, it's the right tool for the job.

Just my $0.02! smile

Average of ratings: Cool (1)
In reply to Matt Bury

Re: Moodle's market value?

by Rick Jerz -
Picture of Particularly helpful Moodlers Picture of Testers

No problem, Matt.

I actually think that I understand your first paragraph.  For what I described might have happened, it would have taken some smart folks to pull it off.

Yes, you portray a good scenario in your second paragraph.

In reply to Matt Bury

Re: Moodle's market value?

by Visvanath Ratnaweera -
Picture of Particularly helpful Moodlers Picture of Translators
Hi Matt

You said:
> It may be that transitioning from HE institutions' old LMS' to Canvas is technically less problematic in terms of the courseware they already have & faculty & admins' knowledge & skills in using their old LMS.

Reminded me of some of the programs touted in my neighbourhood as teaching platforms, things like SharePoint or OneNote. Oh ja, transitioning such courseware to Moodle is trivial.
big grin
In reply to Rick Jerz

Re: Moodle's market value?

by James Steerpike -
Private equity will want at least a 10% return on their investment in Canvas. Once they pay their staff and commissions, they will need about $250 million in sales and outgoing charges, every year. Something like finding 2 500 universities and corporates every year to pay $100 000 each to buy new software. Or 25 000 institutions to pay $10 000 each year under a maintenance agreement. Or some combination of the two.
Against a product which is free to license. I wouldn't want to put my money on that bet.
Average of ratings: Cool (1)
In reply to James Steerpike

Re: Moodle's market value?

by Visvanath Ratnaweera -
Picture of Particularly helpful Moodlers Picture of Translators
So this "Private Equity" has to suck that much from the education. What is then left for the education?
In reply to Visvanath Ratnaweera

Re: Moodle's market value?

by Matt Bury -
Picture of Plugin developers

Hi Visvanath & James,

One possible scenario may be that Canvas may be used as a gateway to access educational content for both students & publishers, i.e. charge for access at both ends. There's a lot of money to be made by being gatekeeper & the profit margins are higher because you don't have to actually produce anything.

Look at academic publishing in general. Elsevier make 40%+ profit margins from doing nothing more than providing an automated online repository system for published journal articles. Universities & their staff do all the work & find the money to do the actual research, write the papers, do the editorial work, do the peer-review, etc.. Then Elsevier & others charge extortionate fees to universities for access to those papers.

Imagine if they could do something similar with online educational resources? Pearson Education are already trying but running into difficulties. Maybe there's an opportunity for Instructure there?

I seriously hope I'm not giving anyone ideas sad

Average of ratings: Very cool (1)