I am still researching the cause but I did discover a mistake I made when I was copying over the moodledata, I left the cron job running but as I had the climaintenance.html the dev's moodledata. That would be fine when the climaintenance is there in moodledata as you will just see a
CLI maintenance mode active, cron execution suspended.on the cron logs but when I did the rsync that file went away in dev which made the cron jobs run fully. OOPS. I am not sure if the cron job running during the copy (something you should never do) caused things to start getting pushed to production but it is a possibility if something in moodledata pointed to the production instance.
For clarification on the just copying the moodledata.
I was only copying what was in $CFG->dataroot. I keep the Moodle application code in a different directory from moodledata. So the config.php, that has all those settings, was not be part of the copy, unless it was in the caching. I did see a directory called moodledata/MUC/config.php which has a mess of things in there but nothing that says points to specific servers.