It's a very rough number, simply because of the number of factors involved. The number came from two estimates I got from two different sites which are very large, one was Open University (see Sam Marshall's response in this discussion too, he's also from OU).
A lot of what we did in Moodle 2.x was to make things faster. The themes for example have heavily optimised caching. Database access was streamlined, indexes improved. Bottlenecks and memory hogs in cron were removed, etc. On the other hand Moodle 2.x does a lot more stuff and has a lot more features.
Factors that would affect any estimate like this:
- Number of users / courses / activities
- Type and configuration of hardware
- Type and configiration of database/OS
- Number/type of integrations with other systems
- Caching systems
- Config settings for everything
- Distribution of user load
- Types of activities used
- etc
All of this can not boil down to any particular number. Still it worries me to hear any reports like this from our friends and all I meant to say in the meeting was that we plan to focus on peformance and make as many gains as we can. We appreciate help from all developers in this.
If you have a big site, there is no substitute for doing your own testing on a development site that is as close as possible to your production site - re-evaluate all the parameters and PLAN FOR FUTURE GROWTH because student usage does tend to increase over time. Turn off features you don't need. Experiment with caching settings. You may need more hardware - this is just a reality. Moodle 2 is a different beast and assumptions from Moodle 1 will not always apply.