Hello Daniel, and sorry for the late reply!
This would require a new Target. I might describe it in a positive, rather than negative way, e.g. "Student is likely to complete Learning Plan on schedule." You could incorporate many interesting indicators in a model with this Target. For example, you might look at the number of classes a student takes simultaneously and grades in each class, as well as activity information within the classes. I think this would be a very useful type of model.
We don't have any plans to develop this model in Moodle HQ, but I am announcing a MOOC to help people develop new models using the Learning Analytics API. We also have proposals to allow users to develop targets, indicators, and models without requiring PHP coding (see MDL-62302, MDL-61806, and MDL-62293). We need to know how much interest there is in these tools so we can decide how to allocate resources.
I hope this helps!