http://www.theregister.co.uk/2006/08/15/beer_diapers/
and here
http://www.dssresources.com/newsletters/66.php
I think this illustrates that predictive analytics is hard in business where there is an effectivly unlimited budget and relatively easy metrics (buy not buy, quantity bought etc) and even harder in education where the metrics are less easily defined, and usually budget constrained.