I'm currently building a production Moodle server on the latest release of 2.3 (staying back from 2.4 for now until all blocks etc are updated for it) but having a bit of a "heads or tails" moment regarding which release to use.
On one hand the base \ stable build is a clear reference point to build on but on the other hand the + build has some additional fixes that may have benefits, but equally slightly less proven in terms of how long they've been out there.
Thoughts?
You have nicely summarised the trade-offs of your two options.
I think the answer is that neither of them is a bad choice. If, considering the trade-offs, you still can't make a decision, then flip a coin
I could get shot for this but I'm not convinced that the 2.3 "stable" release is likely to be more stable than a 2.3+ release. In reality, if any problem was found with 2.3 the fix would be in a 2.3+ release not the original 2.3, if you see what I mean.
My view is to install that latest on the branch and be in a position were you can regularly update to the latest version. Best of both worlds.